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SPACtrac Report - ISOS Acquisition Corp: Bowlero: Hits the Mark

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

ISOS Acquisition Corp: Bowlero: Hits the Mark

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to end of report for Analyst Certification & Disclosures

Strong quarterly results. Bowlero reported strong Q1 2022 results with total bowling center revenue of $176 million, making it the 4th highest grossing quarter in Bowlero’s history. Revenue topped the company’s target revenue of $167 million by 5%, a good start towards its FY 2022 revenue target of $817 million. Impressively, margins improved, with adj. EBITDA margin of 33.4% versus 17% in fiscal Q1 2020 (pre-pandemic). It is noteworthy that the 33.4% EBITDA margin meets the company’s Fiscal Year 2022 EBITDA margin goal of 33%.

Moving beyond the pandemic. Bowlero’s latest quarterly revenue topped Q1 fiscal 2020 (pre-pandemic) revenue by 22%. The revenue growth, coupled with improving margins, lead to adj. EBITDA growth of 140% compared with Q1 2020. In absolute terms, adj. EBITDA was $59 million in Q1 2022 versus $25 million in Q1 2020.

Roll-up continuation. In the quarter, Bowlero completed its acquisition of Bowl America, for roughly $44 million. By doing so, Bowlero added 17 bowling centers in the eastern United States. Additionally, the company added 5 other bowling centers in the quarter. The total outlay required for acquisitions in Q1 was roughly $79 million.

Right down the alley. The company beat its revenue expectations for the quarter across all three primary segments, Bowling & Shoe, Food & Beverage, and Amusement. Notably, the strong performance was in spite of historically soft seasonal lull. Moreover, the additions of nearly two dozen centers in the quarter sets up the company for attractive revenue growth for the balance of the year.

Compelling stock valuation. The implied post-merger EV/2022E EBITDA multiple for Bowlero is near 10.5x, near current levels. By comparison to a broad peer group comprised of industries such as Live Events, Leisure, Amusement, and Experiential, Bowlero shares may offer as much as 40%-60% upside. The average EV/2022E EBITDA multiple for the broad peer group is 14.1x, suggesting a $14 price target for Bowlero shares. On the other hand, when excluding the Amusement industry peer group (due to its lower growth rate compared to Bowlero), the blended multiple is 15.7x EV/2022E EBITDA, implying a $16 price target. Therefore, in taking into account both implied target multiples, a $15 price target appears reasonable.

Investment Summary

Bowlero, which plans to go public through the merger with ISOS Acquisition Corp., announced favorable fiscal first quarter results.  Q1 2022  total bowling center revenue was $176 million, making it the 4th highest grossing quarter in Bowlero’s history. Notably, this is seasonally one of the weakest quarters for the company, indicating that the fiscal year is off to a strong start. Revenue topped the company’s target revenue of $167 million by 5%, solid progress towards its FY 2022 revenue target of $817 million. Impressively, margins improved, with adj. EBITDA margin of 33.4% versus 17% in fiscal Q1 2020 (pre-pandemic). It is noteworthy that the 33.4% EBITDA margin meets the company’s Fiscal Year 2022 EBITDA margin goal of 33%. Figure #1 Fiscal Q1 illustrates the company's strong performance with the year earlier quarter. 

Highlighting that the Covid pandemic appears largely behind the company, Bowlero’s latest quarterly revenue topped Q1 fiscal 2020 (pre-pandemic) revenue by 22%. The revenue growth, coupled with improving margins, lead to adj. EBITDA growth of 140% compared with Q1 2020. In absolute terms, adj. EBITDA was $59 million in Q1 2022 versus $25 million in Q1 2020.

Importantly, the company appears to be operating on all cylinders, beating revenue expectations across all three primary segments, Bowling & Shoe, Food & Beverage, and Amusement. Notably, the strong performance was in spite of historically soft seasonal lull. Moreover, the additions of nearly two dozen centers in the quarter sets up the company for attractive revenue growth for the balance of the year. In the quarter, Bowlero completed its acquisition of Bowl America, for roughly $44 million. By doing so, Bowlero added 17 bowling centers in the eastern United States. Additionally, the company added 5 other bowling centers in the quarter. The total outlay required for acquisitions in Q1 was roughly $79 million. 

In spite of the strong fundamentals, the ISOS shares have not reacted to the positive results. The implied post-merger EV/2022E EBITDA multiple for Bowlero is near 10.5x. As illustrated in Figure #2 Comparables, the ISOS shares trade at a steep discount to its peer gorup. By comparison to a broad peer group comprised of industries such as Live Events, Leisure, Amusement, and Experiential, Bowlero shares may offer as much as 40%-60% upside. The average EV/2022E EBITDA multiple for the broad peer group is 14.1x, suggesting a $14 price target for Bowlero shares. On the other hand, when excluding the Amusement industry peer group (due to its lower growth rate compared to Bowlero), the blended multiple is 15.7x EV/2022E EBITDA, implying a $16 price target. Therefore, in taking into account both implied target multiples, a $15 price target appears reasonable. 

Figure #1 Fiscal Q1


Figure #2 Comparables


GENERAL DISCLAIMERS

All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words "we", "us", or "our" are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.("Noble") and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.

This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Noble accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Noble. This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercising of independent judgement. Noble may have published, and may in the future publish, other research reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information provided in this report. Noble is under no obligation to bring to the attention of any recipient of this report, any past or future reports. Investors should only consider this report as single factor in making an investment decision.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or discussed to another party, without the written consent of Noble Capital Markets, Inc. ("Noble"). Noble seeks to update its research as appropriate, but may be unable to do so based upon various regulatory constraints. Research reports are not published at regular intervals; publication times and dates are based upon the analyst's judgement. Noble professionals including traders, salespeople and investment bankers may provide written or oral market commentary, or discuss trading strategies to Noble clients and the Noble proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.

The majority of companies that Noble follows are emerging growth companies. Securities in these companies involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Noble research reports may not be suitable for some investors and as such, investors must take extra care and make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment based upon risk tolerance, investment objectives and financial status.

Company Specific Disclosures

The following disclosures relate to relationships between Noble and the company (the "Company") covered by the Noble Research Division and referred to in this research report.

Company Specific Disclosures

The following disclosures relate to relationships between Noble and the company (the "Company") covered by the Noble Research Division and referred to in this research report.

The SPAC Company in this report is a participant in the Company Sponsored Research Program (CSRP); Noble receives compensation from the Company for such participation. No part of the CSRP compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed by the analyst in this research report.

Noble is not a market maker in any of the companies mentioned in this report. Noble intends to seek compensation for investment banking services and non-investment banking services (securities and non-securities related) with any or all of the companies mentioned in this report within the next 3 months

ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Director of Research. Senior Equity Analyst specializing in Media & Entertainment. 34 years of experience as an analyst. Member of the National Cable Television Society Foundation and the National Association of Broadcasters. BS in Management Science, Computer Science Certificate and MBA specializing in Finance from St. Louis University.
Named WSJ 'Best on the Street' Analyst six times.
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 66, 86, 87

WARNING

This report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION

Independence Of View
All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.

Receipt of Compensation
No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public
appearance and/or research report.

Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.

NOBLE RATINGS DEFINITIONS
% OF SECURITIES COVERED
% IB CLIENTS
Outperform: potential return is >15% above the current price
94%
33%
Market Perform: potential return is -15% to 15% of the current price
6%
2%
Underperform: potential return is >15% below the current price
0%
0%

NOTE: On August 20, 2018, Noble Capital Markets, Inc. changed the terminology of its ratings (as shown above) from "Buy" to "Outperform", from "Hold" to "Market Perform" and from "Sell" to "Underperform." The percentage relationships, as compared to current price (definitions), have remained the same.

Additional information is available upon request. Any recipient of this report that wishes further information regarding the subject company or the disclosure information mentioned herein, should contact Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by mail or phone.

Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
150 East Palmetto Park Rd., Suite 110
Boca Raton, FL 33432
561-994-1191

Noble Capital Markets, Inc. is a FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) registered broker/dealer.
Noble Capital Markets, Inc. is an MSRB (Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board) registered broker/dealer.
Member - SIPC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation)

Report ID: 24264





Company Ticker Price Previous Mkt Cap Volume 52wk Range
Isos Acquisition Corporation Class A
ISOS (NYSE)
$10.02
$10.05 (-0.30%)
$319.18M
0
$9.55 - $10.29
Fundamental Analysis
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  Release - electroCore Announces Publication Reviewing the Prescribing of gammaCore for the Treatment of Cluster Headache in England, 10/20/2021
  Cannabis Related Businesses (CRB) New Access to Banking Services, 10/20/2021
  Release - Gray Announces Proposed $1.5 Billion Incremental Term Loan and $500 Million Revolving Credit Facility Updates Guidance for Third Quarter 2021, 10/20/2021
  Flying Electric Cars That Fit in Your Garage, 10/20/2021
  Release - Kratos Breaks Gigabit Barrier with OpenSpace Virtualized Wideband Receivers for Earth Observation Missions, 10/19/2021
  QuickChek - October 19, 2021, 10/19/2021
  Release - Ocugen Inc. to present pre-clinical data for OCU410 at 2nd Annual Dry AMD Therapeutic Development Conference, 10/19/2021
  Release - Seanergy Maritime Announces Acquisition of its 17th Capesize Vessel, 10/19/2021
  Release - 1-800-FLOWERS.COM Inc. to Release Results for its Fiscal 2022 First Quarter on Thursday October 28 2021, 10/19/2021
  Release - Comtech Telecommunications Corp. Announces New Cybersecurity Solution, 10/19/2021
  The SEC’s Final Report on Short Squeeze Activity, 10/19/2021
  Michael Burry Adjusts Tesla Position, 10/19/2021
  Release - Comtech Announces $100 Million Strategic Growth Investment, 10/18/2021
  QuickChek - October 18, 2021, 10/18/2021
  Release - Avivagen Secures Large OxC-beta Livestock Order in Asia, 10/18/2021
  Release - Sierra Metals Reports Third-Quarter 2021 Production Results, 10/18/2021
  Release - Dr. Patrick Gruber to Participate in a Water Tower Research Fireside Chat, 10/18/2021
  WallStreetBets Founder May Create Controversial ETP, 10/18/2021
  Marijuana Dispensaries and the Impact on Use, 10/18/2021
  Release - Sierra Metals to Release Q3-2021 Consolidated Financial Results on Monday, November 8th, 2021, 10/15/2021
  QuickChek - October 15, 2021, 10/15/2021
  What Does a Bitcoin ETF Do for Investors?, 10/15/2021
  Corruption at the World Bank?, 10/15/2021
  Inflation and the Reflation Trade, 10/15/2021
  Release - Cocrystal Pharma to Present at the Dawson James 2021 Small Cap Growth Conference on October 21 2021, 10/14/2021
  QuickChek - October 14, 2021, 10/14/2021
  Release - Gevo to Report Third Quarter 2021 Financial Results on November 10 2021, 10/14/2021
  Release - Voyager Digital Secures Final Approval to Begin Operations in Europe, 10/14/2021
  Exploration and Production Review and Outlook - Noble Capital Markets Energy Sector Review - Q3 2021, 10/14/2021
  Release - electroCore Announces Regulatory Approval in Canada to Treat Adolescent Migraine, 10/14/2021
  What a $75.6 Billion COLA Could Mean to Investors, 10/14/2021