How Do I know if a Stock is Over or Under Priced?
Investors are always searching for the next great investment opportunity; one of the most fundamental factors in making an educated investment decision is determining if the market is undervaluing a specific stock. Valuing a stock involves analyzing various financial metrics and market conditions to determine the stock’s intrinsic value. This represents the true worth of the company, knowing it before others discover the value provides an investment edge and maybe above-average returns.
There are several key factors that investors should consider when valuing a stock. These include the P/E ratio (price/earnings), intrinsic value, GAAP earnings vs. adjusted earnings and other metrics and market expectations. When determining P/E and other ratios, variations that may come into play for a specific industry or economic environment are important measures as well. These could include industry comparisons of price/sales ratio, price/book ratio, and trends like industry grouping conditions improving or deteriorating.
Below we’ll look at many of the numbers that investors use as filters to create watch lists. The lists can then be used to weigh one opportunity against another based on market environments, demand trends, and competition.
P/E Ratio
The P/E ratio, or price-to-earnings ratio, is a commonly used metric for valuing stocks. It’s the ratio of a company’s stock price to its actual earnings per share (EPS). A high P/E ratio indicates that investors are paying a premium for the company’s continued earnings potential, while a low P/E ratio suggests that the company may be undervalued.
As an example, the price-to-earnings ratio (taking the latest closing price and dividing it by the most recent earnings per share) for Meta Platforms (META) as of May 10, 2023 is 23.95. That is to say that it each share is priced at almost 24 times earnings. By comparison, General Morors (GM) has a current P/E ratio of 5.11. This could indicate that the stability or growth potential of Meta (Facebook) is perceived by investors as greater than a traditional car company in an increasingly competitive environment – or that the value of one is not sustainable. This information gives the investor a foundation from which to make decisions.
Of course it is not that easy. It’s important to note that not all P/E ratios are created equal. The P/E ratio can be calculated using either GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings or adjusted earnings, which can have a significant impact on the valuation of a company. Non-GAAP financial measures exclude certain expenses. The exclusions include one-time expenses like restructuring charges, gains/losses from asset sales, and other non-operating items. The refined metric is often used by investors and analysts to assess a company’s earnings power excluding certain items that may not be representative of the company’s core business operations.
Variations of P/E Ratio
There are also several variations of the P/E ratio that investors should be aware of. The forward P/E ratio uses projected earnings instead of historical earnings to calculate the ratio, this can provide a more accurate picture of a company’s future valuation potential. Of course, this depends upon the accuracy of forecasts.
The trailing P/E ratio, on the other hand, uses historical earnings over the past 12 months to calculate the P/E ratio.
Price/Sales Ratio
The price/sales ratio is another valid measure of a stocks over or undervaluation. It represents the ratio of a company’s stock price to its sales per share. This ratio is particularly useful for valuing companies that have yet to turn a profit, as it focuses on the company’s revenue instead of its earnings.
Price/Book Ratio
The price/book ratio is a metric that compares a company’s stock price to its book value per share. Book value represents the total value of a company’s assets minus its liabilities, and it provides a measure of the company’s ability to earn per asset. A low price/book ratio may indicate that a company is efficient and undervalued, while a high price/book ratio may indicate that the company is overvalued.
Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of a stock represents its true worth based on the company’s underlying fundamentals, such as its revenue, earnings, and assets. Calculating intrinsic value can be a complex process that involves forecasts developed by analyzing financials, market trends, demand for product growth, and other relevant factors. The most common method for calculating intrinsic value is the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, this involves projecting a company’s future cash flows and discounting them back to their present value. Present valuing future cash flows results in what many use as the measure of intrinsic value of a company’s stock.
Business Conditions
It is always important to consider the overall business conditions when valuing a stock. This may be why GM has a much lower P/E than META. The growth in demand for tech is expected to continue to be greater than the growth in demand for cars. In other words, a company that is operating in a growing industry with strong demand may be more valuable than a company that is operating in a declining or increasingly competitive industry. Similarly, a company that is well-positioned to take advantage of new technologies or trends may be more valuable than a company that is lagging behind its competitors.
In all cases, it’s imperative that investors consider macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks, that could impact the overall market conditions and the company’s performance.
Take Away
Self-directed investors typically have at their disposal a platform that can filter and sort through many criteria. This helps investors that are trying to determine if a stock is currently undervalued. The information that one pulls from these filters and ratio analysis is only as valid as its accuracy and completeness. But it can serve as a good starting point to avoid stocks that are currently overvalued and to uncover companies that are not getting the attention they need to have its stock trade at higher valuations.
An investor doesn’t have to be first to recognize an undervalued stock, but discovering it early and then hoping others follow may require an investor to look at companies not making headlines every week. The 6,000 small-cap stock names on Channelchek, complete with enough data to compare the ratios and other elements mentioned above, may be the only stock universe needed to help an investor create a watch list of potentially undervalued opportunities.
Managing Editor, Channelchek
