The Back Story on Why Uranium Investors Saw a Spike Up in Values
Nuclear energy now provides 10% of the world’s electricity. If a major supplier of uranium becomes unavailable, it could be very disruptive. For countries such as France that derives 68% of their electricity from nuclear power plants, it can become more than disruptive. This is why the coup in Niger, which provides 15% of of the uranium used in French power plants is generating so much concern.
Background
Over the past few days, a successful military coup in Niger has sparked concerns in the EU and especially in France regarding the potential ramifications on uranium imports crucial for powering the country’s nuclear plants. As a major supplier, Niger currently fulfills 15% of France’s uranium needs and holds a significant 20% share of the EU’s total uranium imports. French authorities, along with energy officials have been quick to address public concerns. While the short-term implications are minimal, long-term uranium requirements could become a challenge for France and other countries within the EU. The block of nations has already been engaged with efforts to reduce dependency on Russia, another prominent uranium supplier for European nuclear facilities.
France, is unusually reliant on nuclear power. Orano, the French state-controlled nuclear fuel producer, has maintained its operations in Niger despite the coup, with the company asserting its primary focus is on ensuring the safety of its employees in the region.
Existing uranium stocks are expected to sustain France’s uranium requirements for approximately two years. Therefore, the French government is confident that the current tensions in Niger will not immediately impact their uranium needs.
Long-Term Concerns for Europe’s Uranium Needs
While immediate disruptions seem improbable, Europe could face challenges in its uranium supply chain in the long run, particularly as the continent strives to diminish its reliance on Russian uranium. Niger, as the top uranium supplier to the EU in 2021, alongside Kazakhstan and Russia, play a critical role in sustaining Europe’s nuclear power sector.
Uranium Investment Reactions
While it may seem cold to think of one’s investment portfolio when trouble befalls others, it is the flow of money in the capital markets that often helps allow for corrective actions that lessen the problem. The plot lines on the chart above represent Cameco (CCJ) a Canadian company that is one of the largest providers of uranium fuel. Energy Fuels (UUUU) which is the leading U.S. producer of uranium, Sprott Uranium Miners (URNM) invests in an index designed to track the performance of companies that devote at least 50% of their assets to the uranium mining industry. The fourth plotline is the S&P 500.
The gap up after the news is unmistakable and suggests investors immediately expect reduced supply from the coup to cause current production to become more valuable as it meets unchanged demand.
Take Away
The military coup in Niger has raised concerns that the supply of uranium to France and the EU may be disrupted. Officials have assured that short-term there is little need for concern, however there are still uncertainties in Europe’s as it was already reducing dependency on Russian uranium production. The evolving situation in Niger may influence the EU’s stance on sanctions against Russian uranium, and its long-term effects on the nuclear energy sector are still uncertain.
Investors may wish to look closer at energy stocks, including uranium producers as they determine whether or not the blip in stock price is the beginning of a trend or a reaction that may, in part, or fully unwind.
Managing Editor, Channelchek
Sources
https://www.politico.eu/article/niger-coup-spark-concerns-france-uranium-dependency/
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/pro-coup-protests-niger-west-african-leaders-meet-2023-07-30/
