Image Credit: Burak Kebapki
Many Reasons to Remain Bullish on the Energy Sector
Do you recall how big tech stocks started to climb dramatically in 2020? Then when many thought they were overdone, they rose even higher in 2021? Well, energy stocks, despite their staggering climb, seem to be having their turn, and there are reasons to believe the sector’s momentum will continue. Just as with the tech sector, they can’t keep rocketing upwards forever, but there are many factors that suggest the run is not yet over.
JP Morgan is quite bullish on the energy sector. In a recent report, they stated, “Energy is the only sector that is seeing its quality, growth, and momentum scores improve simultaneously.” The bank believes that energy stocks remain the best equity investment as commodity prices continue to rise. They point to continued rapid earnings growth. Despite the massive gains in 2021 and year-to-date, they wrote in a research note on Thursday (April 28), there is still room for more upside in energy stocks.
| “Energy is the only sector that is seeing quality, growth, and momentum scores improve simultaneously while maintaining an attractive value and income profile,” – Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Global Head of Quantitative Research, JPMorgan |
Energy remains the bank’s highest conviction investment. Commodity prices continue to rise and the underlying fundamentals of companies are improving. Accordingly, the expectation is that a combination of rapid earnings growth and renewed ratings for key multiples will continue to drive the sector.
And while demand remains elevated for commodities, supply could stay constrained due to a rising cost of capital and pressure from ESG policies. “The supply-demand balance continues to be tilted in favor of improving demand with higher commodity prices,” Lakos-Bujas said.
The highly regarded strategist estimates that energy demand will exceed supply by 20% and would require $1.3 trillion in incremental capital to close the gap by 2030. “While investor interest and sentiment has clearly inflected from record lows over the past year, energy stocks are far from pricing in strong and sustainable outlooks for fundamentals and shareholder returns,” the Chief Equity Strategists said.
JPMorgan’s note highlighted that energy remains the “cheapest sector” based on forward-looking earnings and book value. This is despite the sector rising 53% in 2021, and another 38% year-to-date. The energy sector trades at 9.5x forward earnings, which is well below its long-term average multiple of 16.5x.
Noble Capital Markets analysts, in their newsletter, Energy: First Quarter 2022 Review and
Outlook wrote, “Energy industry fundamentals remain strong. Energy prices are high and show no sign of decreasing. High oil prices, combined with improved operating efficiencies, mean that production companies are facing very favorable returns on their investment. We look for companies to continue reporting strong positive cash flow and to use cash flow to increase drilling and improve balance sheets.”
Take-Away
All rallies eventually come to an end. But analysts seem to be in agreement, the fundamentals, global events, and current valuation make a compelling case for the energy sector. Channelchek is a great resource to review, explore and discover small and microcap energy stocks from green energy, to fossil fuels, and even natural resources used in energy storage or transmission.
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Paul Hoffman
Managing Editor, Channelchek
Suggested Reading
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 Exploration and Production Review and Outlook – Noble Capital Markets Energy Sector Review – Q1 2022
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 Alvopetro Energy (ALVOF) NobleCon18 Presentation Replay
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Sources
https://am.jpmorgan.com/sg/en/asset-management/per/funds/global-growth/
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