Wednesday, July 05, 2023
Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
Energy Stocks underperformed the market in the second quarter. Energy stocks declined 2.0% in the 2023 second quarter, underperforming the 8.3% rise in the S&P 500 Index. The decline comes after several years of strong performances for energy stocks and reflects a 6.6% decrease in oil prices. Oil drilling activity has begun to pick up but remains well below historical high levels. Interestingly, the recent increase in active drilling rigs has not led to increased production. This may be a sign that the improvement in drilling techniques has begun to slow. Or it may simply represent a reduction in prime drilling targets.
We expect oil prices to remain above our long-term forecast of $60/bbl. for the foreseeable future. The combination of limited drilling, rising demand associated with improving economic conditions, and OPEC production cuts bodes well for oil prices. We believe oil prices will remain above our long-term projections of $60 per barrel for the foreseeable future.
The story for natural gas is less positive but improving. Natural gas prices have been on a downward trend for the last twelve months. Some of the decline can be attributed to warm weather this winter. Drillers have been slow to respond to low gas prices but have cut back activity since April. New LNG export capacity is coming online soon and should boost natural gas demand.
We believe the outlook for energy companies remains favorable. Oil prices are high and do not show signs of falling due to sharp production decline rates, rising demand due to improving global economic conditions, and active OPEC production cuts. Natural gas prices are low but should improve with a return to more normal weather, a reduction in supply due to less drilling activity, and an increase in demand for LNG exports. We believe the case for smaller cap energy stocks is especially strong.
Energy Stocks
Energy stocks, as measured by the XLE Energy Index, declined 2.0% in the 2023 second quarter, underperforming the 8.3% rise in the S&P 500 Index. The decline comes after several years of strong performances for energy stocks and reflects a 6.6% decrease in oil prices. The decline in oil prices came despite two OPEC production cuts and signs of improving global economic conditions.
Oil Prices
Figure #1
Drilling activity has begun to pick up but remains well below historical high levels. Interestingly, the recent increase in active drilling rigs has not led to increased production. This may be a sign that the improvement in drilling techniques has begun to slow. Or it may simply represent a reduction in prime drilling targets. Either way, it seems that cyclical oil price patterns of the past have become more muted. Drillers are taking a longer-term view of prices. We believe improved energy company fiscal discipline will lead to a period of prolonged high oil prices.
Figure #2
Stated another way, production from recently drilled wells does not increase production levels but goes to replace production declines from existing wells. As drillers shift to horizontal wells with longer laterals and increased fracking activity, oil production shifts towards the earlier years of a well’s life. However, that means that the production decline after initial production is greater, and more wells must be drilled just to replace production. The chart below, while somewhat dated, shows Permian Basin oil production separated by the year wells came on-line. The chart shows that in 2022, more than half of all oil production came from wells drilled in 2021 or 2022.
Figure #3
Source: Novi Labs
The combination of limited drilling, rising demand associated with improving economic conditions, and OPEC production cuts bodes well for oil prices. We believe oil prices will remain above our long-term projections of $60 per barrel for the foreseeable future.
Natural Gas Prices
The story for natural gas is less positive. Natural gas prices have been on a downward trend for the last twelve months. With the decline, we are beginning to hear reports of production curtailment. Some of the decline can be attributed to warm weather this winter. Natural gas storage levels are running above historical levels for this time of year. Drillers have been slow to respond to low gas prices. Active rigs targeting gas formations in the United States remained between 150 and 160 through April. However, since then, the rig count has plunged to the current level of 124.
Figure #4
The decline in natural gas prices in recent years has come despite a dramatic increase in natural gas exports in recent years. This trend continues with an additional 1 TCF/year of U.S. export capacity scheduled to come online by 2025. Whether or not that has an impact on natural gas prices remains to be seen.
Figure #5
Outlook
We believe the outlook for energy companies remains favorable. Oil prices are high and do not show signs of falling due to sharp production decline rates, rising demand due to improving global economic conditions, and active OPEC production cuts. Natural gas prices are low but should improve with a return to more normal weather, a reduction in supply due to less drilling activity, and an increase in demand for LNG exports. We believe the case for smaller cap energy stocks is especially strong. Major oil companies are facing increasing pressure to focus on renewable energy instead of producing more carbon-based fuel. Smaller cap energy companies are less tethered and often able to acquire and exploit properties being ignored by the majors.
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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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