Thursday, April 3, 2025
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Emergency Funding. On Tuesday, the Department of Homeland Security submitted on SAM.gov for an emergency detention and related services strategic sourcing vehicle to bring an additional allotment of detention beds online nationwide, in compliance with the President’s Declaration of a National Emergency at the Southern Border of the United States and related Executive Orders. The maximum ceiling value of the vehicle is $45 billion.
Details. Under the RFP, the government anticipates making multiple indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract awards. It appears the contract will have a two-year period of performance, from April 14, 2025, through April 13, 2027. Responses are due by April 4th. Under the scope of work, the vendor may be required to provide infrastructure, staffing, services, and/or supplies necessary to provide safe and secure confinement for aliens in the administrative custody of ICE. Ground transportation services may also be required.
Current ICE Population. ICE populations have increased significantly under the new Administration. ADP during the month of October was 38,714, which rose to 40,205 for the month of January. ADP for March 1 through March 22nd was 47,304, while the population on that date was 47,892, according to ICE. There has not yet been a significant change in ATD populations.
Implications. Given the timelines involved and the scope of work required, this ID/IQ would seem to favor the abilities of both CoreCivic and GEO, given their history in the sector and the number of idle facilities that can be brought back online. ICE’s budget in 2024 was $9.7 billion, with about $3.3 billion dedicated to Enforcement and Removal Operations, so a new max of $45 billion is a major jump. If these types of funds are put to use in a timely manner, the current financial projections for both CoreCivic and GEO would prove conservative, in our view.
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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
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