Monday, November 11, 2024
Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Misses Q3 expectations. Q3 revenue of $950.0 million was below our $1.02 billion estimate, with the largest variance due to lower than expected Political advertising and weaker core advertising. Political was $173.0 million versus our $200.0 million estimate. Q3 adj. EBITDA of $322.0 million was lower than our $396.0 million estimate. Figure #1 Q3 Results illustrate our estimates versus reported results.
Disappointing Political outlook. Management indicated that Q4 Political advertising will be in the range of $248 million to $253 million and in the range of $495 million to $500 million for the full year 2024, well below our $380 million and $652 million estimate, respectively. The shortfall appears to be due to a shift in spending for Senate and House races into more competitive markets which were outside of Gray’s footprint.
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