Powell’s Talk at the Jacksonhole Symposium Won’t be Until Friday
The light economic calendar is likely to take a backseat to the annual Jackson Hole Symposium this week and the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa. In Jackson Hole, the overriding theme is “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”. The annual meeting is intended to have an overriding academic tone, but the number of Fed policymakers involved allows the markets to listen for any meaningful interest rate bias. The expected focus is on remarks from those actually conducting monetary policy, US central bankers. Powell is scheduled to give his speech on the “Economic Outlook” at 10:05 ET on Friday. Meanwhile, 9,900 miles away, the BRICS group of major emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – will hold its heads of state and government summit in Johannesburg from Aug. 22-24. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to attend in person. Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend in person, as there is an arrest warrant out related to the war in Ukraine. He is expected to attend virtually. The markets will be interested to see if the group expands by allowing other countries,also any news related to the New Development Bank (NDB) sometimes called the BRICS bank, and all around economic cooperation.
Stocks may also take their cue from interest rates and the longer end of the yield curve, which has begun adjusting with rising rates for longer-dated maturities.
Monday 8/21
• There is no key data being released and no expected talks or events with market implications.
Tuesday 8/22
• 7:30 AM ET, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak. Recent comments from Barkin have been hopeful. Barkin recently said the greater-than-expected easing in inflation in June may be an indication that the US economy can have a “soft landing,” returning to price stability without a damaging recession.
• 10:00 AM ET, the Existing Home Sales annual rate for July is to be at the same level as it was in June, 4.16 million. The National Association of Realtors has been citing a lack of available inventory for the slow pace of sales as existing homeowners are choosing to keep their lower mortgage rates.
• 2:30 PM ET, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak. Goolsbee has made it clear he is on the fence as to whether tightening at the September meeting is warranted.
Wednesday 8/23
• 9:45 AM ET, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) composite for services is expected to show that the number holds above 50 in July, as it has for the last six PMI releases. As for manufacturing, the consensus is 48.8, which would be down a bit from the 49 reported in June.
• 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales in July, a month before mortgage rates began their recent spike, is expected to move higher to a 702,000 annual rate after slowing to 697,000 in June which, though lower than expected, was still the second highest rate in more than a year.
• 10:30 PM ET, EIA The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides the Petroleum Status Report weekly with information on petroleum inventories in the US, whether produced in the US or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
• 8:30 PM ET, BRICS Summit.
• 11:00 PM ET, Jackson Hole Symposium.
Thursday 8/24
• 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders are forecast to fall 4% for August after a 4.6% increase in July, pushed higher by aircraft orders. Ex-transportation orders are forecast to be up 0.2%, with core capital goods orders unchanged.
• 4:30 AM ET, The Fed’s Balance Sheet is expected to have decreased by $31.208 billion to $8.146 trillion for the seven day period ending August 23. This would be a $61.5 billion decline. Market participants and Fed watchers look to this weekly set of numbers to determine, among other things if the Fed is on track with its stated quantitative tightening (QT) plan.
Friday 8/25
• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment is expected to end August at 71.2, unchanged from August’s mid-month flash with year-ahead inflation expectations also expected to be unchanged at 3.3%.
• 10:05 AM ET, US Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to give his address at Jackson Hole.
What Else
Have you attended an in-person roadshow organized by Noble Capital Markets? Noble has been reaching out to retail and institutional investors and holding these events designed for investors to meet management teams. Investors have been able to discover more about their companies, often enough to make an informed decision. The forum has been getting rave reviews from investors and company management teams. Use this link to see if a roadshow is scheduled near you.
Managing Editor, Channelchek
Sources
